Local printing paper production collapsed 35% in 2022-23
Australia’s printing and communication paper production slumped 35% in 2022-23, falling to a three-decade low of just 345 kt. The collapse was precipitated by the cessation of Uncoated Woodfree (UCWF) production at Opal’s Maryvale mill in early 2023.
National supply of copy paper in particular is now delivered entirely by imports, with the iconic Reflex brand reportedly acquired by Thailand’s Advanced Agro and most shipments coming from China, supplemented by Indonesia, among others.
The latest data is contained in the 2023 Pulp & Paper Strategic Reviews that will be released to subscribers later this week. If you need to discuss a late subscription to the Strategic Reviews, contact us by email and we will be delighted to assist you. There are no ‘late fees’ involved!
Australian Printing & Communication Paper Production by Main Grade: 2013, 2018, 2023 (kt & %)
|
Y/E June |
Newsprint |
Uncoated Mechanical |
Coated Mechanical |
Uncoated Woodfree |
Coated Woodfree |
Total |
|
2013 |
412 |
70 |
– |
295 |
– |
777 |
|
2018 |
316 |
55 |
132 |
267 |
– |
770 |
|
2023 |
106 |
42 |
93 |
104 |
– |
345 |
|
CAGR10 |
-12.7% |
-5.0% |
– |
-9.9% |
– |
-7.8% |
Source: IndustryEdge research and estimates
As the Strategic Reviews comment:
“Australia’s total local production peaked in 2007-08, before declining relatively quickly through to 2014-15 when Light Weight Coated mechanical paper production recommenced. Subsequently, local production was relatively stable until 2019-20, since when it has bounced around as the global pandemic ripped into markets and supply chains.”
It is clear that production will decline further in subsequent years due to the cessation of UCWF manufacturing in Australia, as a result of the closure of paper machines at Opal’s Maryvale Mill.
The major consequence for the supply chain now, and in the future, is there will be increased imports. Imports of the UCWF grades lifted a calculated 84% in 2022-23, with copy paper imports lifting more than 275%, based on our estimates.
Unfortunately for trade transparency, one or more of the importers achieved a remarkable result on ‘trade confidentiality’, getting the ABS to agree to ALL details of copy paper imports being redacted. That means there is not even a monthly total volume and value from which to work out a weighted average price, let alone, State of Delivery, Country of Origin or Port of Origin data.
Our estimate that in 2022-23, copy paper imports totalled 69.5 kt has been painstakingly assembled with industry participants, as has the detailed breakdown by country.
Full import details are provided in the Strategic Reviews.
Exports of printing and communication papers also crashed in 2022-23 and will fall further in subsequent years. The table below shows exports by main grade for selected years.
Australian Exports of Printing & Communication Papers by Grade: 2013, 2018, 2023 (ktpa)
|
Y/E June |
2013 |
2018 |
2023 |
CAGR10 |
|
UCWF |
139.2 |
80.9 |
19.9 |
-17.7% |
|
Newsprint |
72.1 |
177.7 |
40.6 |
-5.6% |
|
UCM |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-4.6% |
|
CWF |
2.2 |
0.8 |
2.6 |
1.6% |
|
CM |
0.2 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
26.9% |
|
Total |
214.1 |
260.9 |
65.5 |
-11.2% |
Source: ABS & IndustryEdge estimates
The challenges of producing and trading in printing and communication papers are ever-present. Markets are declining but there are still opportunities available, albeit they involve lower volumes. In many cases, the average price and total value of trade increased in the most recent financial year, with imports up 2.9% by volume for the year (because of the closure of UCWF production locally) and the value up 12.6% without adding any value for the estimated copy paper import volume!
This is an edited extract of an item first published in the October 2023 (Edition 220) edition of Pulp & Paper Edge. To learn more about Pulp & Paper Edge, click here.
To learn more about the 2023 Pulp & Paper Strategic Reviews, click here.